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🍽️ Opening a restaurant, cafe or bar

The hardest business in this app — and the numbers that decide it before you open.

What the market is worth

US restaurant & foodservice: $1.55T projected 2026 sales, up 4.8% (National Restaurant Association)
Real growth: ~1% after inflation — most of that 4.8% is menu pricing, not more customers
What that means: Share, not growth you are competing for existing traffic, not riding a rising market

How it actually grows

Before the lease The lease decides more than the menu

Rent as a share of expected sales is the number that survives every other decision. Great food in the wrong location loses to adequate food in the right one, consistently.

Watch out: Signing on a personal guarantee without modelling a bad first year. This is where most operators lose more than the business.

Opening year Prime cost is the whole game

Food plus labour as a share of sales — commonly targeted near 60% — determines whether volume turns into money. Track it weekly, not monthly.

Watch out: Menu sprawl. Every added dish costs inventory, prep time, waste and consistency, and most restaurants earn the bulk of revenue from a handful of items.

Years 2–3 Find the profitable hours and defend them

Most venues make their money in a narrow band of shifts. Knowing which ones — and staffing to them rather than evenly — is often the difference between breaking even and not.

Watch out: Chasing dead shifts with discounts. Deep promotions on a quiet Tuesday can cost more in margin than the covers are worth.

Established Second location, or depth

The fork in the road: replicate, or increase spend per visit through catering, events, retail and private hire. Depth is usually the lower-risk answer, and rarely the one people pick.

Watch out: Opening a second site before the first runs without you. If it needs you daily, you don't have a system to copy yet.

What each revenue stream is good for

Revenue stream	Pays	Scales
Dine-in Highest experience value, highest labour cost. Where reputation is built.	Core	Capped by seats & hours
Takeaway & delivery Extends capacity beyond seats, but third-party commission can eat the margin whole.	Medium	Good
Beverage Usually the best margin on the menu. Attach rate is a coachable staff habit.	Highest margin	Good
Catering Uses existing kitchen capacity at off-peak times. Often the most overlooked line.	High per booking	Good
Private hire / events Guaranteed revenue, known headcount, minimal waste.	High	Medium
Retail (sauces, beans, merch) Sells your reputation without using a seat.	Small but high margin	Excellent

If you're starting this month

Model a bad year before you sign the lease — not a good one. The good year takes care of itself.
Track prime cost (food + labour ÷ sales) weekly from your first week open.
Cut the menu until every item earns its place. Fewer dishes means less waste and better consistency.
Know your break-even covers per shift, and post it where the team can see it.
Compare delivery-platform revenue net of commission against dine-in before you lean on it.

Before you trade on any of this

Food service carries the heaviest regulatory load of any business here: health permits, food-handler certification, liquor licensing, employment law and tip-handling rules all vary by state and city. Liquor licensing in particular can take months and be the binding constraint on opening. Budget professional advice into the startup cost.

Run this against real numbers → The same handbook inside the tool, on a worked example you can swap for your own spreadsheet. Free, no account.

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Figures are sourced from published industry research (IBISWorld, trade associations and regulator data) and are stated with their year. They describe typical conditions, not your situation. This is general information for business owners, not financial, tax, or legal advice.